[ChinaPack pressworkIndustrial network company pays close attention to]
Since 2018, company debt will queue up a clap of thunder. A big shock that carries about ten million human life began.
Come nearly two months, wait for an industry as a result of carbon of upriver papermaking, coal, iron and steel rise in price tide is billowy, below the add fuel to the fire that carriage cost rises and environmental processing is restricted to produce, form deadly concussion to link of intermediate industry finished products.
Cooking coal rises in price 200% ,
Glass rises in price 40% ,
Plastic rise in price 30% ,
Aluminous material rises in price 30% ,
Iron and steel rises in price 30% ,
Stainless steelAlso explode go up 40% ,
Freight rises in price 33.6% ,
Industrial base paper has money to also be bought was less than ……
In the circumstance most serious papermaking, pack reach presswork industry, paper value all the way mad go up, individual paper industry inside 10 days 5 rounds raise price, but the circumstance that still appeared to money cannot buy paper, bring about a large number of enterprises to stop to accept the order.
The zoology environment of Chinese hypostatic economy is in boiling condition, a large number of enterprises are risen in price wildly by be involved in in eddy, struggle hard, the life hangs a gleam of.
Rise in price tide is by mechanism of a series of liquidation type crises, price long-term twist and paroxysmal incident are caused. Because contradiction has gathered much, information the opaque, panicky psychology that adds people, cause price of industrial finished products condition of out of control is immersed in inside short time.
Liquidate type crisis
Day volume imprints bank note faces liquidation
This rise in price tide says last time paroxysmal inflation, reason nature is exceed the day of hair 8 years to measure M2 to concern with the past.
2008, chinese M2 is 47.5 trillion, m2 data was 2016 149 trillion.
Go a few years, the government tries to build building city and stock market two moneys pond will chain exceed hair money, but the stock market is played by city of ox of a man-made incomplete, boiler of high pressure of building city foamy is covered forcibly by the government, bring about fluidity to run rampant. And a few years of time in the past, chinese foreign exchange reserve reduced -727379968 dollars, but did not reclaim however the RMB of corresponding rate, aggravate fluidity is flush.
Here, the metaphysics of the ” of “ money pond that wants assail to that shoots up because of fearing to exceed hair money to cause price and be established is academic, the serious consequence that such doing is: The person that have a house in great quantities finds money times added, but price is very low however, consume desperately then, anyway what thing need not work also can the money with more than working all one’s life to earn gain.
The number that this kind of false prosperity makes create wealth on one hand is decreased greatly, on the other hand a large number of real money by excessive use up, aggravate the bubble of the RMB is changed. In other words, the degree of prospective inflation may be far those who compare an imagination is serious much.
Nowadays, the day measures M2 to be about to come to by the hour of liquidation, the government is faced with or bubble of piercing building city, or bears the deadly test that acuteness inflation place brings.
Environmental protection pollutes bad old practices die hard
Chinese economy opens 30 years to come, although expert of a lot of foreign countries points out sacrificial environment develops economy to cannot last, the loss outweights the gain, but below the estimate that considers ” in all sorts of “ plot, the bottom line that the government superintends to the environment again and again fall, and the corruption that nowhere is absent is indulgent the enterprise steals a platoon in great quantities.
Eventually, once the mist haze of damage Guo Yinglun and North America enveloped northward earth again, the area diffuses quickly from the kilometer of 560 thousand square last year kilometer of 1 million square.
Very unfortunate, caught up with this environment to pollute brought liquidation type crisis again 2016. Be restricted to produce the blowdown that grows with twice to collect fees in ceaseless stop production below, the raw material with industrial field indispensible place begins to soare.
Building city bubble enters liquidation period
The estate great leap forward that came 2008, the coal carbon that gives China, steely, cement, build contented, Wei Yu, furniture, home appliance, lamp act the role ofing, hardware, pack, presswork waited for an industry to bring all-time prosperity, also created unprecedented crisis.
The yield of these industries can by magnify with multiple fold, nowadays as Chinese housing serious and superfluous decrease with the acute of youth mouth, these industries are facing liquidation type crisis. On one hand related to estate the yield of the industry can fall into disuse will special cruelty, estate foamy is undone on the other hand affect dweller consumption again conversely, bring about produce can farther superfluous.
What Bei urges is, these industry quarter accumulated many obtain employment population. For instance the industry such as coal carbon, iron and steel, at every turn hold together a move in chess or a movement in wushu the rice bowl of 100 thousand people, be in indebted below the circumstance of atrophy of tall look forward to, market, can be on his last legs only through raising price.
The revengeful sex that long-term twist issues price mechanism rebounds
After the economy 2008 is exciting, civilian investment of China and national investment all present enthusiastic position. Begin from 2012, serious yield can be superfluous bring about mechanism of market price case to begin twist. China experienced the long PPI before be as long as 4 years to glide continuously during this, and still hire in artificial, factory, content shedding appears below the circumstance that waits for cost of factor of production to climb slope considerably.
Nowadays, as raw material price shoot up, PPI begins by negative become a full member, but prices has appeared it seems that revengeful sex rebounds. That low price life that is as long as 4 years has become as transient as a fleeting cloud, future will be period of painful repay a debt.
Meanwhile, long-term in the past low price, bring about reject to reclaim profitless, because nobody are willing to pursue the job that reject reclaims, cause waste paper case, Plastic bottle, scrap iron be thrown away.
Once exchange rate drops, cost of entrance raw material rises considerably, papermaking industry appeared even raw material breaks the extreme appearance that offer. This also is raw material price mad one of reasons that go up.
Abiogenesis sex incident is brought about rise in price
Additional, exchange rate of growth of cost of social security pay, RMB drops, highway is treated super- , estate adjusting control, officeholder and treatment of soldiers and police endowment wait for abiogenesis sex incident, have major effect to rising in price this. Especially exchange rate drops, bring about magnate of industry of a few paper not dare from abroad purchase waste paper and pulp, cause paper price mad go up, even one paper is begged hard.
However, rise in price to still do not calculate dreariness, the most terrible is consumptive market is exhausted lose and foreground is vague.
Although industrial finished products goes up sound one, but produce can superfluous with consumption low fan force terminal consumable manufacturer to must reduce the price sales promotion. At present, the fruit of a lot of places, pork, green vegetables, milkings, paper is tasted, day changes articles for use hitting lose sales promotion.
Double the insanity of 11, show everybody does not have money probably, the choice gets online buy dozen fold commodity.
So a more serious problem came, conduct terminal consumable domain when inflation, be sure to bring about inside need more fatigued and weak, produce Xin Yibo to produce thereby can superfluous. Such vicious circle goes down, consequence is unimaginable.
Fine study the Chinese economic situation nowadays, exit, inside need, invest 3 carriage Qi Qi to bend over nest, innovation of science and technology has not formed new kinetic energy, the whole people does poineering work is nevertheless after delaying obtain employment crisis. But, we still still have the opportunity —— of a be unexpected rescued from a desperate situation to be lost to create the enterprise of obtain employment to decrease, to carry “ on the back personally the people of ” of 4 big hill is decreased negative.
The time that leaves China hypostatic trade already not much, decrease lose true meeting to come?
Is hypostatic economy of China after all by who of crumple up?
A lot of medium and small businesses of Chinese rely on dodge a tax basically living, macroscopical duty of China is lost be as high as 38% to control, exceed country of a lot of rising markets far, exceeded the developed country such as the United States, England even. From tax cost burden character, if the index of duty negative anguish of Chinese enterprise is the first, nobody dare say the 2nd.
Again financing is for instance difficult, the financing of medium and small businesses is difficult the dominance issue that becomes academia from reform beginning, however, research arrives today, this problem still stays in appeal phase. Came nearly 40 years in the past, the credit resource of 80% flowed to China to contribute GDP to be less than the state-owned branch of 40% , contributed GDP to surpass the blame public company of 60% , the credit resource that obtains from the credit orgnaization of the mainstream is less than 20% , china of 80% in small small company relies on folk almost leasehold and living, rely on the blood of illegal financial orgnaization bankroll.
If say, the be defeated of Chinese hypostatic economy is not the summary that changes because of these moods, does real crucial reason where? Chinese hypostatic economy and manufacturing industry walk along today’s crossroad, this is a kind of fate and metempsychosis.
It is with manufacturing industry exemple, past China is made can a new force suddenly rises, what the key depends on labor cost is cheap, because this China chose the treatment that lowest of global industry catenary carries to make on industrial policy, give the world working pattern namely. A bit more accurate tell, china is not ” of “ world plant, however “ is world plant ” .
This kind of mode made the success that China goes already, but this also is today the main reason that China is made and hypostatic economy is immersed in awkwardness and predicament. Besides a bit lucidder, the experience with the oldest pattern of past China development is the low end of catenary of industry of cheap labor and butt joint whole world.
All our mechanisms are for such mode preparation, below the cycle of population bonus, although duty expends a burden,this kind plays a way heavy, financing is difficult, but also can come down alive, once population bonus ends, all sorts of malpractice of this kind of mode can be shown come.
Accordingly, duty expends burden it may not be a bad idea, or the manpower cost such as social security rises, financing is difficult, not be Chinese hypostatic economy by the reason of crumple up. Chinese hypostatic economy goes to today, prime cause is the economic system that allows us to gained a success in the past, economic mode had lost competition ability.
It is in order to associate exemple, associate the forms for reporting statistics last year is very bad to look, yang Yuanqing says not to look one year apologetically. In fact, associate to come for years forms for reporting statistics has not been in good-looking, this is to associate the result that the devoted and insufficient company on this kind of ongoing hair faces necessarily.
Associate to leaned in the past and buy the brand of others, rely on to others to assemble computer to be able to live very well. Associated in the past to always become a following giant, very few oneself visit unmanned area, now, this route also goes to the end. Can say, the be on the wane that associate, represent the past in fact representative enterprise of that times China is in exit historical arena, future is belonged to China for such business that does research and development truly.
Chinese duty expends a burden to bearing, industry financing is difficult, the government is too right the condition that the dependence of estate allows whole and hypostatic economy to be in awkwardness, but the key that this is not a problem.
The key of the problem depends on our consciousness be less than us to go back on his word to had been afterwards hard with successful mode before. After we become giant, we are whole country, is not the region that individual business walked into to differ completely with the past. This region needs more innovation, need new commercial pattern, need new system modes of life and relation to their environment to create new competition ability, otherwise you will go not to take up the post of the unmanned area that is not a character, you die only.
Now is China needs to reframe the moment of truth of competition ability mode, the key of mode of heavy model competition ability is to hold to course of reforming and opening not to shake. The manufacturing industry that casts China no matter, chinese economy is in in the past 40 old successes, nothing more than “ reform, open, include ” 6 words, let those who want to make money make money, admit entrepreneur the position in the society. These 6 words can explain Chinese past, also decide Chinese future.
Besides the tremendous influence of economy of one billion three hundred and eighty-five million four hundred and forty-seven thousand four hundred and twenty-four pairs of China, of neither one country rich either because of manufacturing industry,
When us foolish when thinking American does not play manufacturing industry, the competition ability of American manufacturing industry is male still crouch whole world position of the first second, manufacturing industry dimensions of the United States remains the whole world the 2nd, be next to China.
If according to GNP is not GDP,calculate, china of outclass of manufacturing industry total dimensions, the malic mobile telephone that Kang Zaizhong country manufactures Fuji, calculate China according to GDP, according to GNP, that is the United States!