Oil price mad hurricane goes up, innovation of waste paper alternate is tall, paper moral course of study faces new change

Published on 2019-12-10

Macroscopical level

Economic data: Change the curve asks scan of contrast of couplet of the paper in consulting in detail

Line of K of oil price case pursues: Relative to smooth phase, update reference every week

Suffer effect of periphery international condition, crude price achieved 4 years again on May 11 new tall, highest strong to 72 dollars / near the bucket.

National statistic bureau is announced 10 days, countrywide dweller consumed price index in April (CPI) annulus is compared drop 0.2% ; Rise compared to the same period 1.8% , go up than going up lunar fall after a rise 0.3 percent. Index of industrial producer producer price (PPI) annulus is compared drop 0.2% ; Rise compared to the same period 3.4% , go up than going up the month enlarges 0.3 percent. The expert expresses, short-term inside the base that our country CPI and PPI did not increase considerably, inflation will be moderate can accuse. Monetary policy has larger space, dovish and neuter fundamental key won’t be changed. Data shows inflationary pressure is not at present great.

End on May 9 afternoon closing quotation, majority of commodity option market drops, crude oil futures continues since refresh appears on the market new tall.

Customs total office: Imported total value April three hundred and seventy-two billion and ninety million dollar, grow 16.7% compared to the same period, export two hundred billion four hundred and forty million dollar among them, grow 12.9% compared to the same period, import one hundred and seventy-one billion six hundred and fifty million dollar, grow 21.5% compared to the same period, sino-US commerce did not appear temporarily get the negative effect of trade war.

Raw material cost

1. Coal: On May 10, look forward to of bottom of dynamical coal price is firm, begin to rebound somewhat, price of 5500 kilocalorie coal picks up 602 yuan / ton level.

2. Oar of merchandise on hand: Enter oar price continued to maintain steady pattern in May, needle leaf oar is in 6700-6800 yuan / ton, broad leaf oar is in 5750-5800 yuan / ton level, outside May dish maintain basically also in April level, 5-6 month beforehand appraise maintains existing pattern basically. The yield of factory of oar of a few broad leaves of domestic can utilization rate is in 82% the left and right sides, drop somewhat than April.

3. Outside dish oar: Outside May dish oar price is relatively stable, integral newspaper is at present smooth, before a few months are consecutive occurrence backwater of small bullish pattern.

Paper industry head

1. Newest and authoritative data produces heat, 2017 go countrywide paper and chipboard output 111.3 million tons, relatively go up year of growth 2.53% , among themBoard paper23.85 million tons, grow 3·47% compared to the same period, base paper of rows of tiles on a roof 23.35 million tons, grow 2.86% compared to the same period. Countrywide paper and chipboard consumption one hundred and eight million nine hundred and seventy thousand tons, relatively go up year of growth 4.59% .

2. Waste paper shows insanity again, waste paper price is achieved piece new tall, paperboard mill stays simple case, base paper factory rises in price case is high frequency roll out, base paper breaks part of plant of goods, 2 class to stop sheet, 3 class factory is dumbfounded, waste paper is gotten go up, base paper follows go up the heat that pattern makes market of near future paper, Corrugated paperA week soares nearly 1000 yuan / ton. Not vigorous spending market, be done by waste paper price however popular in a state of anxiety. China is restricted to become main internal cause to be being set strictly from American waste paper.

3. Entrance waste paper was controlled in 28 million tons 2017, its are Sino-US useless occupy 13.8 million tons, the acute that at present beautiful useless entrance measures is decreased, the price already from the 151 dollars a year ago / ton steep fall 74 dollars, be equivalent to 474 RMBs only / ton, and the price of domestic waste paper has exceeded 3500 yuan / ton. Look from waste paper utilization rate, every tons of base paper needs to use up 1.17 tons of waste paper, because of the exit of a large number of packing, at present of domestic waste paper reclaim rate in 50% . So, to the research of waste paper policy and tendercy, it is the crucial factor that holds trend of waste paper prices.

4. Waste paper price is unusual rise while, not be to rise in price brought joyance, may cause paper moral course of study to wash out the open of mode, because of the mutation of waste paper policy, integral pattern has violated law of value, the likelihood causes the health that violates resource to optimize to direct, already sea cleans out the look forward to of many medium dimensions paper that remains dene is not be forced because of ignored environmental protection to stop be restricted, be close to because of devoid raw material shuffling however, in terminal consumption, can abandan paper box to seek more replace or had filled with this, cheap outside abandon already by firm control of 3 big tycoons, unfair competition already was the fact that does not dispute, what need attention most is second half of the year those who begin is large-scale newWrapping paperProduce can the investment risk that equipment put into production will exist to leave boiler without rice, rising in price is not benefit any more good, can cause pair of future wrapping paper to supply chain instead bigger impact.