Environmental protection policy is farther hasten is severe, the market is right cycle board piece continue hopeful, think environmental protection is restricted to produce perfect replace supply side reform, cycle tastes the price to get be proppinged up further, it is enterprise outstanding achievement or main area will continue no matter of the near future strong. How look upon this viewpoint, the influence that environmental protection is restricted to produce pair of markets after all how?
Silver-colored international thinks in, although be in,short-term likelihood tastes the price to produce the effect that prop up to partial cycle, but, environmental protection is restricted to produce brought supply concussion to be met in metaphase main to economy area produces negative effect.
As open of superintend of the 4th batch of environmental protection, the near future publishs relevant policy more in succession, ensure environmental protection asks to get fulfilling, for instance wide the Heibei and other places that gets attention undertakes for air processing heating season wrong peak is produced, shandong closes group of bridge stopping the Kingdom of Wei to violate compasses produce can wait 2.68 million tons.
Reform photograph comparing with supply side, environmental protection is restricted to produce 3 are showing characteristic or difference: The first, although environmental protection is a purpose, but measure respect, main avenue is not to go up compulsively line or equipment of environmental protection of form a complete set, go producing however can; The 2nd, supply side reform basically has been aimed at remnant to produce can, and in light of the policy that is restricted to produce from environmental protection, whether polluting an environment is main standard, whether to produce can serious superfluous not be main standard; The 3rd, going producing can in the process, inside same industry, manufacturing efficiency is low not be main standard, one knife of “ cuts the liability of ” .
Silver-colored international thinks in, look from short-term effect, if environmental protection is restricted to produce policy to be fulfilled strictly, supply will be faced with bigger impact. With electroanalysising 3 industries are aluminous, iron and steel and cement delegate.
Electroanalysis aluminous respect, season of “2+26” city heating is restricted to produce a requirement to be in 30% above, data of dispatch of 100 travelling expenses shows, “2+26” city is produced at present can 11.96 million tons, the whole nation is occupied than 28.1% , reflect this estimation, be restricted this to produce dimensions to be controlled in 3.6 million tons, the whole nation is occupied than 8.43% ; Steely respect, the key city such as Dan of Shijiazhuang of Heibei province requirement, Tang Shan, Han, heating season is restricted to produce 50% above, according to degree of the four seasons occupied estimation 2016, heibei province crop holds countrywide proportion 22.2% , be restricted this to produce will reduce 11.1% right-and-left yield of countrywide; Cement respect, “2+26” city need is right all cement, cast, tile kiln undertakes wrong peak is produced, at present Shandong, Heibei more here fundamental admiral stop production expands to complete province, hypothesis Shanxi, Henan also undertakes follow the lead of, criterion the scale of the stop production that visit town that “2+26 city ” involves predicts to reach the whole nation 16.32% .
Accordingly, short-term in light of, supply is being shown drop, the price of corresponding product still has ascendant space, in the meantime, because production makes stop, pollution decreases, the environmental problem hopeful such as mist haze alleviates considerably.
From the point of metaphase, supply concussion is conducted to production, investment and consumption, macroscopical economy will get negative effect.
Silver-colored international thinks in, the bounds of this round of environmental protection is produced, environmental protection equipment whether form a complete set, produce can serious efficiency of superfluous, production is low, not be core standard, here setting falls, it is not certain to go producing considerably conduce to the main area that improves an industry, although rise in price in outstanding achievement of enterprise of short-term and favorable advanced position, but in light of metaphase, as a result of cost carry litre, macroeconomic, it is to swim up and down no matter, can be pounded brought negative effect by supply.
Produce a field, be restricted to produce stop work of the upper reaches in be being brought about directly, and in downstream, profit of ascendant depress of raw material cost, bring about production to decrease secondhand, in once downstream demand begins to drop, will quits rise in price the contribution of pair of upper reaches profit, upper reaches also will be damaged, manufacture farther shrink; Invest a respect, as a result of the fall of profit, scale of production is contractive, fixed assets investment also will give now to slip; Export side, in commerce and globalization chain, current level, can tolerate relative to higher environmental cost, it is China attracts the international capital, main factor that holds trade dominant position, environmental protection is restricted to produce brought concussion to go against the promotion that exports competition ability; Finally, obtain employment and consumptive side, production shuts the unemployment that stops to cause a worker directly, overlay profit drops, consumption can be restrained.