Economy of second half of the year is added fast or continuance goes smoothly situation

Published on 2018-11-26

Come when in June, the step comes in bureau, market orgnaization carries to the economy of second half of the year advancing travel is sentenced beforehand in succession. ” economic reference signs up for ” the reporter is forecasted integratedly with all possible means, as a result of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is added fast super- anticipate rise, drive up annual economy grows centre, although second half of the year or show small fall after a rise, but will continue to go smoothly in light of annual situation, add fast or for 6.7% . Prices respect, annual will keep low move. Invest a respect, good luck of second half of the year and pressure coexist, enterprise benefit improvement raised investment ability and investment to anticipate, but the policy effect of estate adjusting control continues to release, to estate investment is added fast adverse effect will be shown stage by stage.

Growth of economy of hasten firm annual maintains tenacity

Much home orgnaization is forecasted, although economy of 2 quarters China is added this year fast won’t resemble exceeding in that way first quarter anticipate, but the tenacity that still can keep quite strong, this kind go smoothly situation can continue to this year annual.

The orgnaization such as development of nation of Chinese people university and strategic academy releases before this ” analysis of Chinese macroscopical economy and forecast (2017 metaphase) ” forecast, 2017 first half of the year, our country GDP is eighteen thousand and sixty-eight billion three hundred million yuan, GDP is added actually fast 6.9% , than going up year of the corresponding period and annual all increase 0.2 percent. In assume finance deficit is led 3% , exchange rate on the level of 7% , and anabiosis in international economy and on the foundation of domestic policy overlay, 2017 annual GDP adds scooter 6.7% .

Xie Yaxuan of presiding and macroscopical analyst also predicts the negotiable securities that enrol business annual GDP is added fast for 6.7% , he thinks, GDP is added first quarter fast super- anticipate rise drive up level of centre of annual economy growth, but economy will appear after this small fall after a rise, the severe manner that superintends considering finance is exceeded anticipate, consumption keeps stable but lack is stretch, cannot invest wave motion completely to be affected to the limit of economic situation to rushing, and the negative effect that exports improvement to also dissolve investment to fluctuate hard.

“ predicts growth of economy of second half of the year will reveal ‘ tenacity ’ , actual GDP is added fast maintain in 6.8% . Company of the gold in ” studies department chief Liang Gong has hope more, think of economy of China of second half of the year inside want will steady growth, what need outside overlay is farther anabiosis. And the sea connects negotiable securities chief economist Jiang Chao thinks, prospective economy growth will get of effect of high cardinal number restrict, the economy inside year is added compared to the same period fast high point big probability has appeared.

Be worth what carry is, regard economy as quota of monitored go ahead of the rest, manufacturing industry purchases manager index (PMI) is already successive the outspread interval that 8 months are located in 51.0% above. Chinese content sheds Chen Zhongtao of information center analyst to express, PMI shows management situation of enterprise whole production is favorable, this on one hand macroscopical economy environment stabilizes profit from continuously to good, market improvement, profit of profit from policy is good on the other hand.

Zhang Liqun of researcher of department of macroscopical economy research points out research center of development of the State Council, PMI is located in outspread interval to show economy grows stable state situation to be made clear further continuously. Grind integratedly sentence, economic growth is turning by posture of short-term strong fast fall after a rise for situation of overall hasten stable state.

Close narrow price scissors makings returns to reasonable interval

Since this year, index of price of countrywide dweller consumption (CPI) and index of industrial producer producer price (PPI) data ever appeared for a time price scissors ”(CPI walks along “ compared to the same period low, PPI walks along tall) compared to the same period, later as become warped the influence such as end element increases, price scissors narrows slowly. The orgnaization is forecasted, prices will keep low this year move, price scissors returns to reasonable interval, the prices inside year is not the main goal that at present monetary policy pays close attention to. Current price state and run mode situation are nonexistent inflationary pressure, also do not have shrink risk.

Liang Gong is forecasted CPI was added 2017 fast for 1.7% , because food price exceeds,anticipate drop, and PPI is added fast for 3.6% , because domestic banking goes to lever reducing inflation to anticipate since March, and global inflation anticipates also somewhat fall after a rise.