Second half of the year began last year, heavy goods goes up situation quickly, balata futures becomes leading sheep, and become at present get drop commodity
I may participate in “ a ” of false ox city
“ my him feeling participated in city of a false ox. A futures investor of ” Beijing tells media, from this year the beginning of the year begins, ceaselessly city of ox of balata of “ of old man propaganda to the enemy at the front line came! ” , but regrettablly is, since Feburary, he copies bottom balata futures frequently, however almost every time “ abandons armour and escape ” .
Begin to drop from 2011, the Xiongfu of natural balata continued 5 years. In September 2016 portion, shanghai glue futures begins to rebound in a large-scale, up to by this year January, shanghai glue index rises an accumulative total is close 90% . Say according to the personage inside course of study, old man participated in a lot of futures this prices.
For example, created fortune myth again 2016, 10 senior futures of 100 million are earned to invest personage teach Chinese flowering crabapple in period city with 15 million capital, the middle ten days of a month expressed publicly this year in January: &Ldquo; balata price comes round to look from eye, the probability that rise is more than dropping probability far. ”
Balata futures is exalted dish after making a month, expression makes however bull is surprised.
On Feburary 15 up to now, balata index accumulative total drops even more 38% , will last year since September go up a half the number spit. The near future is more 4 break even back a be issued to lower levels. Analytic personage points out, whole was right 2017 structural sex is arrogant last year the correction prices of city.
During ” of face about of “ of futures of the balata at the beginning of March is down, have investor deep feeling: “ also 10 come between climate, every day shout balata is surging the sound of bovine city disappeared from the scene, this one bull is afraid had been eliminated almost by the market. ”
On March 1 “ pocket is the bull investor that brings ” one to say: When “ leaves, average singlehanded profit is in 3000 a little bit almost. ”
He discloses say, in this prices, a lot of old man are dead bull, drop every time come down to continue to add a storehouse into gold, city of ox of ” of “ call it by a good name of did not end. “ does not know whether the dead bull of these balata is well. ”
Balata futures and balata tire relation
Invest a personage to point out, natural balata rises in price the appear on the marketing that benefit exceedingly produces rubber company. For example, during balata futures price rises greatly, hainan balata is carried accordingly brace up. But balata rises in price benefit empty tire kind appear on the market company, because cost raises,reduce profit.
The country sends the futures that bring a letter moustache China drill rod expresses senior analyst, generally speaking, of price of day glue futures and Hainan balata go situation, present high positive to involve a sex on the whole. Come nearly one year, the correlation coefficient of period price and Hainan balata is Shanghai glue 0.924.
With Shanghai glue period price is similar, hainan balata share price also walks out of the prices of type of “ switchback ” one round.
To in downstream, as a result of influencing factor numerous and jumbled, of tire and car share walk along situation and price of natural balata futures situation is not consistent.
Come nearly one year, period price and correlation coefficient of China friendship group are Shanghai glue – 0.74, with correlation coefficient is eaves of contest annulus gold 0.769, the correlation coefficient that weighs steam and blessing cropland car with China all is 0.87 the left and right sides, and it is with correlation coefficient of east wind car – 0.36.
Futures chemical industry is believed in senior researcher Tong Changzheng thinks, of balata price early days rise, bring about tire manufacturer cost to rise. This also makes the profit of tire manufacturer gets adverse effect.
Nevertheless, of the near future drop should meet company of benefit good tire, their profit should be met take a turn to be out of danger.
Additional, of balata price drop greatly make the profit of balata production company is damaged. Hainan balata and in change international to all appear to drop greatly.
According to observation, during this round of balata rises, will come last year in October by this year January, hainan balata share price rises nearly 30% . Accompanying glue price be issued to lower levels subsequently, share price drops greatly.
Hainan balata stock goes situation
City of ox of on one round of balata happened in January 2009 come first by January 2011, last a period of time two years, go up about 300% . 2016, natural balata rises in price extent is made an appointment with 90% .