Arrive from supply and demand the price: Polyolefin market of

Published on 2019-08-15

Polyolefin market condition was analysed 2016

Market of raw material ethylene

2016, home is oily base ethylene is produced can 17.97 million tons, among them 4 suit already arrived as a result of fixed number of year and buy closes temporarily stop, coal radical ethylene is produced can 4.495 million tons, aggregate twenty-two million four hundred and sixty-five thousand tons. Additional, oil radical ethylene produces per year a quantity 18.03 million tons, grow 3.6% . In oil increase production 11% , in petrifaction reduction of output 1% . Alone hill child, 7 enterprises such as He Huizhou of sea of division of Daqing, contest, luxuriant name, town, Fujian exceed 1 million tons.

Rate of domestic ethylene start working is quite high, average rate of load condensate 104.6% , global rate of load condensate is in 84% the left and right sides. That why is domestic ethylene go into operation so expensive?

Because before two years crude price glides considerably, giving refine to change brought benefit is first-rate. Refine of the oil in first quarter is changed this year board piece profit is already record-breaking, after approaching peak value to control a venture also again won’t tall.

2016 supply and demand of domestic polyethylene, polypropylene and produce can circumstance

1, respect of supply and demand

1) polyethylene:

2016 domestic polyethylene consumption 24.7 million tons, occupy consumption of 5 big general synthetic resin to make an appointment with 38.2%; to basically consume an area to be in Hua Dong. Industrial catenary is in even if now to southwest China north is transferred, dan Huadong cardinal number is large, glide not apparent.

Supply side, the entrance occupies big head to be in 39.04% , external depend on sb or sth for existence spends the petrifaction in amounting to 38.8%; to occupy than 28.76% , the oil in 7.1 million tons of; holds output than 19.36% , chemical industry of coal of 4.78 million tons of; resembles crop local enterprise Pan Jinshi is changed, in sea oil 3.17 million tons.

2) polypropylene:

2016 domestic polypropylene consumption 22.12 million tons, occupy consumption of 5 big general synthetic resin to make an appointment with 27.8%; to basically consume an area to also be in Hua Dong, northwest is inferior because the dependency of polypropylene and industrial product that pack is stronger.

Supply side, with homebred give priority to, in petrifaction 6.39 million tons the biggest, coal chemical industry develops 5.26 million tons swift and violent, in oil 3.35 million tons. Import 4.29 million tons, depend on sb or sth for existence is spent inferior in 21.4% .

Additional, in domestic polypropylene price the setting that has been global flat falls, at present the entrance is given priority to with professional makings, general makings home already began exit, and speak a volume increase by degrees every year.

2, produce can respect

1) polyethylene:

Domestic polyethylene was produced 2016 can 15.85 million tons, basically produce can the region is northeastern with northwest, basically consume landform to match into fault of supply and demand with Huadonghuana, bring about content to shed cost to fall hard from beginning to end.

Among them: Oil is produced in can 5.13 million tons, main northeastern, northwest and southwest. Petrifaction is produced in can 7.2 million tons, basically be in Hua Dong, China north, Hua Na, China in. Coal chemical industry is produced can 2.67 million tons, basically be in northwest, Hua Dong. Sea carapace and other enterprise are produced in can 850 thousand tons, distributing northeastern, Hua Na.

2) polypropylene:

Domestic polypropylene was produced 2016 can 19.45 million tons, basically produce can center at northwest, and Hua Na is produced relatively can inferior, because this expression is Hua Naju,propylene price difference always is taller than other area 100-200 yuan. Be in as the development of coal chemical industry ever since Hua Na layout, will bring about advantage of price of the area austral later period China to close to other area narrow.

Additional, to Hua Dong area, come this year the PDH project of mount a horse is more bring about supply and demand of this area polypropylene to be about to approach balance state, so price of associate with Hua Dong should compare Hua Beigao 100-200 yuan, and approach smooth water state basically now.

02

2017 market price case goes first half of the year situation review

On the whole, mix by last year the price of the market is fluctuant first half of the year 2017 origin matchs at fault of supply and demand.

2016 of the end of the year rise in price: Domestic polyethylene demand guarded estimation to have 6%-8% last year, and as a result of the entrance decrease and domestic new increase production can of put into production defer, bring about a watch to need to add fast add under demand fast, from this the market will appear later in October a big outbreak.

Specific and character, plastic and real consumptive production busy season spends; in the four seasons well-known, traditional mid-autumn, National Day, double 11 nets are bought with plastic be closely bound up, the watch needed to grow four quarters to just be achieved last year 5.7% , show the market appeared a serious shortage phenomenon, just cause the price so rise quickly.

2017 the price fall after a rise first half of the year: First half of the year with four quarters formed bright contrast last year, to Feburary, the watch of polyethylene needed growth to maintain March 20.3% , and 15%-16% also does not pass before a few years when demand is best, accordingly fault of apparent supply and demand matchs.

Specific for, exceed first half of the year constant the watch needs to add fast basically will come from at the entrance, 1-2 month import rose 40.3% , arrived first half of the year also is 17.3% , such entrance is added fast in going 10 years, be infrequent.

Among them main reason depends on home what plastic price pulled the end of the year last year is very tall, all area of home of the end of the year are plastic price Dou Yuangao at foreign area, accordingly very out-of-the-way at that time, a lot of Spain goods that do not have a date sell China to come, also import first half of the year from this present concentration to erupt.

Additional, the negotiability of plastic mart is very good, and the 70%-80% that Chinese market itself took global polyethylene trade, want the price only so appropriate want abroad to sell only no matter how many quantity can sell China to come,do not move.

Because this home market gets an import,influence price wave motion is compared big. The trafficker with accordingly more expensive stock, do not do first half of the year period if be being covered now, 80-90% is deficient.

Look integratedly, go up of annual home plastic market advocate next ceaseless moving of center of fundamental key price, what doesn’t the market have during rebound prettily, end most breed is in historical status by June.

Look from the angle of inventory, drop the reason basically depends on the rehabilitate with four too hopeful pair last year quarters devalueing in the RMB last year, of inflationary escalate anticipate below, downstream factory and products business emerge a miscarriage of justice to commodity of a gleam of and raw material price, four quarters end begins actively to increase reserve, cause storehouse of home of Spring Festival around to explode centrally the phenomenon of the storehouse appears.

Below the pressure of expensive stock, trafficker and downstream factory are in the inventory that digests oneself, domestic importer to contend for market share, reduce sale price ceaselessly only.

The price appears in 4-5 month one glides quickly the circumstance with firm look forward to, had dropped basically to level of the beginning of the year because of the price, everybody feels later period risk is not big so with respect to look forward to firm. In inventory pressure slow down and supply and demand two weak conditions fell in June, the market does not have what a favourable turn.

03

Annual supply and demand balanced an analysis 2017

Polyethylene

2017, predicting home polyethylene will have 3 to increase plant put into production newly, produce can be 1.12 million tons. End polyethylene of the home end 2016 is produced can be 16.17 million tons, predict to come polyethylene of the home end 2017 17.29 million tons, produce can amplitude 6.9% .

Add node of unit go into operation newly according to afore-mentioned polyethylene, predict because add unit newly,put into production will bring 330 thousand tons yield for home 2017.

Additional, look relatively at the history, produce this year can add fast had put delay. Specific, from 2009-2017 year, domestic polyethylene is produced can increase to by 8.85 million tons 17.29 million tons, nearly 8 years compound increase rate is 9.17% .

Additional, abroad respect, up to by 2016, polyethylene of predicting whole world is produced can 89.5 million tons, the whole world is new 2017 increase production can 5.43 million tons, produce can amplitude 6.1% .

Up to by 2016, the global polyethylene that includes China inside is produced can 105.5 million tons, global polyethylene was produced 2017 can increase 7.25 million tons, produce can amplitude 6.9% .

Put in considering 16 years of device again produce can lag sex, the pressure that comes from an entrance 17 years is not little. Arrive from 2016 2022, the project that North America has 10 companies will in succession put into production, new increase production can 9.5 million tons.

Polypropylene

Predict the end of the year is the following 2017 new increase production can all can realize go into operation, at the appointed time domestic polypropylene is produced can will increase 2.01 million tons, produce can achieve 26.42 million tons, produce can amplitude 8.2% . And according to node of afore-mentioned time of unit go into operation, predict because add unit newly,put into production will bring 810 thousand tons yield for home 2017.

Additional, look relatively at the history, produced 2017 can increase rate wants under in recent years average increase rate.

Specific and character, from 2009-2017 year, domestic polypropylene is produced can rise to by 10.8 million tons 26.42 million tons, nearly 8 years all compound increase rate is 12.1% .

Additional, abroad respect, predict by 2016, global polypropylene is produced can 50.5 million tons, global polypropylene is new 2017 increase production can 1.44 million tons, grow 2.9% .

Predict by 2016, the global polypropylene that includes chinese mainland inside is produced can 75 million tons, global new increase production can make an appointment with 4.15 million tons 2017, at the appointed time global polypropylene is produced can be 79.15 million tons about, major polypropylene new increase production can be produced can come from China, produce can amplitude 5.5% .

Finally, because domestic polypropylene is new increase production can be tremendous, and foreign new increase production can be limited, because this abroad new increase production can be released,predict to won’t import a quantity to produce an effect to Chinese polypropylene. Later period polypropylene will present import volume to drop, exit measures addition current.

Conclusion

1, predict home is new 2017 increase production can put into production and new 2016 increase production can lag influence will bring 3.66 million tons polyolefin supply for home. Among them polyethylene 920 thousand tons, polypropylene 2.74 million tons. Polyethylene respect adds supply newly to be high pressure respectively 440 thousand tons, linear 480 thousand tons.

2, foreign new increase production can be forecasted harder, basically be foreign new increase production can sex of plan of put into production is poorer. Predict 10 thousand tons to polyethylene imported a quantity to increase 50-60 2017, polypropylene keeps balance basically, exit may be controlled more than 200 thousand tons.

3, country is only 2017 overhaul of plant of splitting decomposition of 3 ethylene vapour, far little last year plant of 7 plant of refine of overhaul dimensions; is overhauled little also last year level. But the grow in quantity as device of coal chemical industry, the overhaul strength of device of coal chemical industry promotes somewhat.

Home was 896 thousand tons because of overhauling an element to bring about crop of polyolefin unit loss 2017, because overhaul the loss that cause,the quantity was 1.26 million tons 2016, compared to the same period loss amount reduces 361 thousand tons, among them polypropylene is little 261 thousand tons, polyethylene is little 100 thousand tons.

Overhaul of domestic polyolefin plant basically was centered in 4-7 month 2017, among them overhaul of plant of splitting decomposition of 3 ethylene vapour is centered in 5-6 month entirely. The loss amount that overhauls after July is controlled 200 thousand tons only.

04

Market of second half of the year was looked into 2017

Produce can grow have difference: 2017 still is to produce a year when can grow considerably, the growth pattern of Dan Juyi Xi and polypropylene is distinguished somewhat, polyethylene pressure is to come from exterior, polypropylene still is give priority to with home. Will look relatively, home is produced can increase the determinism that compares abroad to want a few bigger.

Supply and demand balances basically: The spending of the whole world and home increases or compare stability, although supply,increase, be more than demand to increase, but superfluous still do not calculate serious, consider plastic demand flexibility is bigger, pass the adjustment of the price, still can digest this increment.

Price centre should under first half of the year: Second half of the year year polyolefin market supplies addition pressure is to should be more than first half of the year, supply pressure to come from new increase production partly can, another part is to come to what overhaul oneself decrease.

The price difference between polyethylene breed also is met relatively close somewhat first half of the year narrow, petrochemical profit can be compressed. Because plastic demand is stretch bigger, the price or meeting have bigger rise and fall. After August, as the put into production of the end of the overhaul and new unit, the market enters tired inventory phase again, polypropylene will be more apparent.

3 quarters market is supplied and demand enters synchronism to raise level, supply increasing can be quantified, but demand comparing is more difficult, because market of this 3 quarters falls easily,go up hard.

4 quarters are annual demand busy season, the bottom hopeful of the price is small carry litre, polypropylene may the price of polyethylene of be a burden on. Overall look, the market has hard bigger rise and fall, the price of second half of the year moves interval should under first half of the year.