Arrive from supply and demand the price: Polyolefin market of China of second half of the year ground 2017 sentence

Published on 2017-09-25

Polyolefin market condition was analysed 2016

Market of raw material ethylene

2016, home is oily base ethylene is produced can 17.97 million tons, among them 4 suit already arrived as a result of fixed number of year and buy closes temporarily stop, coal radical ethylene is produced can 4.495 million tons, aggregate twenty-two million four hundred and sixty-five thousand tons. Additional, oil radical ethylene produces per year a quantity 18.03 million tons, grow 3.6% . In oil increase production 11% , in petrifaction reduction of output 1% . Alone hill child, 7 enterprises such as He Huizhou of sea of division of Daqing, contest, luxuriant name, town, Fujian exceed 1 million tons.

Rate of domestic ethylene start working is quite high, average rate of load condensate 104.6% , global rate of load condensate is in 84% the left and right sides. That why is domestic ethylene go into operation so expensive?

Because before two years crude price glides considerably, giving refine to change brought benefit is first-rate. Refine of the oil in first quarter is changed this year board piece profit is already record-breaking, after approaching peak value to control a venture also again won’t tall.

2016 supply and demand of domestic polyethylene, polypropylene and produce can circumstance

1, respect of supply and demand

1) polyethylene:

2016 domestic polyethylene consumption 24.7 million tons, occupy consumption of 5 big general synthetic resin to make an appointment with 38.2%; to basically consume an area to be in Hua Dong. Industrial catenary is in even if now to southwest China north is transferred, dan Huadong cardinal number is large, glide not apparent.

Supply side, the entrance occupies big head to be in 39.04% , external depend on sb or sth for existence spends the petrifaction in amounting to 38.8%; to occupy than 28.76% , the oil in 7.1 million tons of; holds output than 19.36% , chemical industry of coal of 4.78 million tons of; resembles crop local enterprise Pan Jinshi is changed, in sea oil 3.17 million tons.

2) polypropylene:

2016 domestic polypropylene consumption 22.12 million tons, occupy consumption of 5 big general synthetic resin to make an appointment with 27.8%; to basically consume an area to also be in Hua Dong, northwest is inferior because the dependency of polypropylene and industrial product that pack is stronger.

Supply side, with homebred give priority to, in petrifaction 6.39 million tons the biggest, coal chemical industry develops 5.26 million tons swift and violent, in oil 3.35 million tons. Import 4.29 million tons, depend on sb or sth for existence is spent inferior in 21.4% .

Additional, in domestic polypropylene price the setting that has been global flat falls, at present the entrance is given priority to with professional makings, general makings home already began exit, and speak a volume increase by degrees every year.

2, produce can respect

1) polyethylene:

Domestic polyethylene was produced 2016 can 15.85 million tons, basically produce can the region is northeastern with northwest, basically consume landform to match into fault of supply and demand with Huadonghuana, bring about content to shed cost to fall hard from beginning to end.

Among them: Oil is produced in can 5.13 million tons, main northeastern, northwest and southwest. Petrifaction is produced in can 7.2 million tons, basically be in Hua Dong, China north, Hua Na, China in. Coal chemical industry is produced can 2.67 million tons, basically be in northwest, Hua Dong. Sea carapace and other enterprise are produced in can 850 thousand tons, distributing northeastern, Hua Na.

2) polypropylene:

Domestic polypropylene was produced 2016 can 19.45 million tons, basically produce can center at northwest, and Hua Na is produced relatively can inferior, because this expression is Hua Naju,propylene price difference always is taller than other area 100-200 yuan. Be in as the development of coal chemical industry ever since Hua Na layout, will bring about advantage of price of the area austral later period China to close to other area narrow.

Additional, to Hua Dong area, come this year the PDH project of mount a horse is more bring about supply and demand of this area polypropylene to be about to approach balance state, so price of associate with Hua Dong should compare Hua Beigao 100-200 yuan, and approach smooth water state basically now.

02

2017 market price case goes first half of the year situation review

On the whole, mix by last year the price of the market is fluctuant first half of the year 2017 origin matchs at fault of supply and demand.

2016 of the end of the year rise in price: Domestic polyethylene demand guarded estimation to have 6%-8% last year, and as a result of the entrance decrease and domestic new increase production can of put into production defer, bring about a watch to need to add fast add under demand fast, from this the market will appear later in October a big outbreak.